Grand Old Primary- August 6th, 2024 (Missouri Edition) (2024)

GRAND OLD PRIMARY- AUGUST 6th, 2024 (Missouri Edition)

INTRO:

Hello everyone and welcome to another exciting edition of Grand Old Primary! If you’re new here, Grand Old Primary is a series where I cover all the most important Republican primaries going on throughout the country. From Congress to the State Legislature to even a few county races, they’re all here folks. We’ve got four states holding primaries today and we already covered Kansas & Michigan, so we’re on to the great state of Missouri! Let’s get to it!

Governor:

Republican incumbent Mike Parson is term-limited, which means that nine different Republicans have decided to run to replace him: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, State Senator Bill Eigel, and six people who can accurately be described as “names on the ballot:” Darren Grant, Jeremy Gundel, Darrell McClanahan, Robert Olson, Ambert Thomsen, and Chris Wright. Outside of McClanahan (who’s an honorary KKK member), nothing much to note about those six candidates.

Let’s start with Ashcroft, who’s the son of former Governor/US Senator/US Attorney General John Ashcroft. Jay Ashcroft started his rise to the top back in 2016, when he flipped the Secretary of State office from the Democrats (incumbent Jason Kander was running for US Senate). He’s been a very right-wing Republican in office, pushing several initiatives and bills to increase voter ID requirements and becoming one of former President Trump’s biggest cheerleaders in his fight against “voter fraud.” He’s expected to carry over that right-wing agenda to the Governor’s office if he wins. He’s being backed by former President Trump (it’s not as big as it sounds, just trust me on this), Missouri Right to Life, and former 2024 Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe first took office in 2018 after Governor Parson ascended to the Governor’s mansion. Since then, he’s been a pretty low-key Lieutenant Governor, keeping his head down and being a relatively normal conservative. He’s carried over that attitude into the Governor’s race, running on a platform of “common sense” and wanting to cut taxes and support the 2nd Amendment. He’s been endorsed by former President Trump (hey wait didn’t he endorse Ashcroft?), Governor Parson, and most conservative-leaning groups in Missouri like the Missouri Farm Bureau and the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police. He also has amassed the money in the race, raking in nearly $4.2 million since he started his campaign. He has had some controversy though after it was revealed that he voted multiple times to allow foreign countries to buy some Missouri farmland.

That brings us to our final contender, State Senator Bill Eigel. Eigel first entered the Missouri political scene in 2016 when he won a safely Republican State Senate seat in exurban St. Lous. Eigel has since become one of the most far-right State Senators in Missouri, introducing bills to ban COVID-19 vaccine mandates for private businesses and losing his committee Chairman position & being threatened with expulsion from the State Senate for stalling Senate business in order to get a vote on amendment to increase barriers for ballot initiatives from citizens. He’s carried over his bomb-throwing antics to his run for Governor, most prominently appearing in a video where he burned boxes with a flamethrower, which was a metaphor for him trying to fight the “woke liberal agenda.” Also recently, he made an ad where he promised to deport illegal immigrants living in Missouri where the punchline was that it was being translated in Spanish by a guy standing right next to him. He’s also attacked Lieutenant Governor Kehoe as “Kung Pao Kehoe'' (even using the stereotypical racist Asian font, the Wonton font, and a picture of Kehoe in what appears to be a kimono) and Secretary of State Ashcroft as an “establishment crony” who dodged military service. He’s been endorsed by former President Trump (3 for 3!) and Congressman Matt Gaetz (ick).

Yes, former President Trump endorsed all three major candidates for Governor. Between this and the whole endorsing “ERIC” thing in the 2022 Senate race, maybe he should just not do Missouri endorsem*nts because they always end up weird. Anyway, polling shows a tight race between Ashcroft and Kehoe, with Eigel trailing around 5-10 points behind. It’s a tough one to predict, given most polls show around a quarter to a third of the electorate undecided, but if I had to guess, I’d go with Ashcroft. His conservative bonafides should be enough to get the win, but I’m definitely not counting Kehoe out (especially with his establishment support). As for Eigel, good riddance even though he will get a substantial amount of the vote.

Lieutenant Governor:

With incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe running for Governor, six people are running to replace him: attorney David Wasinger, State Senator Lincoln Hough, State Senator Holly Rehder, Franklin County Clerk Tim Baker, conservative activist Matthew Porter, and bail bondsman Paul Berry. Porter just recently suspended his campaign, but he’s still on the ballot, so he’s included here.

Wasinger is running as an outsider, promising to “drain the swamp” and fight for “main street” instead of Wall Street. Sounds like an interesting platform, does he feature anything different than a mainstream conservative? Nope, he also wants to secure the border, stand up for “Christian values,” and protect the 2nd Amendment. He’s being backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC & MO-07 Congressman Eric Burlison and has amassed nearly $3 million in fundraising.

Hough is running on his record as a “proven conservative” in the State Senate, highlighting his authorship of a large tax cut bill and his votes to defund sanctuary cities and Planned Parenthood. He’s being backed by former US Senator Kit Bond and most conservative-leaning groups, including the Missouri Farm Bureau & the Missouri Fraternal Order Police. His fundraising leaves a bit to be desired though, only raising around $700,000.

Rehder is running as a culture warrior, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment, stop China from buying Missouri farmland, and to “save women’s sports.” She hasn’t had any major endorsers and has only raised around $500,000. Baker and Berry are both also running as culture warriors, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment and promoting “election integrity.” Neither has raised much money.

This looks like it’s going to be a two-way race between Wasinger and Hough. The one recent poll of the race agrees with me, as Wasinger leads Hough by just one point with Rehder close behind and Baker, Porter, and Berry floundering in the back. If I had to guess, I’d say Wasinger’s monetary advantage gives him the winning edge here. Hough can’t be counted out though, given his impressive list of endorsem*nts.

Secretary of State:

With Republican incumbent Jay Ashcroft retiring in order to run for Governor, eight Republicans have stepped up to replace him: State Senator Denny Hoskins, Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller, State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman, judge Mike Carter, conservative activist/crazy person (we’ll get to that) Valentina Gomez, State House Speaker Dean Plocher, political aide Jamie Corley, and State Representative Adam Schwadron.

And breathe. Let’s start by saying one simple thing, every single candidate here is running on a platform of “election integrity.” The differences start in trying to figure out how far they’ll go to enforce it. We’ll start with Hoskins, who’s also promising to fight the “woke agenda” and proudly speaks of his bill to ban abortions in Missouri. He’s being backed by other prominent far-right figures like State Senator/gubernatorial candidate Bill Eigel and the My Pillow guy Mike Lindell. He does have a problem in the fundraising department though, only raising around $200,000 since he entered the race. Schoeller is a bit to the left of Hoskins, promoting election integrity yes, but for stuff like promoting voter ID and signature verification instead of Hoskins trying to get Mike Lindell to like him. He doesn’t have any prominent endorsers and his fundraising is pretty much matching Hoskins’s fundraising.

Coleman is promising to “stop the woke left” and promises to be a “conservative fighter” as Secretary of State. She hasn’t really promised anything specific outside of trying to deport every single illegal immigrant in Missouri. She’s only being backed by the Susan B. Anthony List and hasn’t raised a ton of money (though she has done better in the fundraising department than Hoskins and Schoeller. Carter is probably the most left-wing “election integrity” candidate here, saying that voting machines can be trusted and that he’s not opposed to making Election Day a holiday. His biggest priority seems to be making it harder for constitutional amendments to pass, hoping to increase the threshold for an amendment to pass from just 50% + 1 to having 2/3rds or 3/4ths of Missouri counties voting for it (and getting 50% + 1 of the vote). He hasn’t raised any money however.

Gomez is just a terrible human being. She’s running as a Christian Nationalist, but is constantly on Twitter calling LGBTQ+ people slurs (even getting restricted recently for saying that trans athletes are F-slurs), calling Kamala Harris a “whor*,” and saying that Juneteenth is “ratchet.” Real Christ-like behavior there Valentina. She’s promising to abolish voting machines and deploy the National Guard to “guarantee impartiality” in the voting process. The good news for decency is that she’s only raised $23,000 and seems to be more focused on being a Twitter provocateur than winning this race. You would think Plocher would be better positioned, being the sitting State House Speaker, but he’s coming off of an ethics probe on whether he intimidated staffers. It was dismissed, but he was also recently sued by the Missouri State House Administrator for using his powers to bully and harass her. Outside of that, Plocher is running on a platform of mandating paper ballots and “Making Missouri Great Again.” Thanks to his connections as State House Speaker, he has been able to raise around $200,000, but has no major endorsem*nts.

Corley is promising to attack “voter interference” from “the left,” but she’s probably one of the more moderate candidates in the race, not supporting a total abortion ban (only supporting a 12-week one), saying that it’s in line with former President Trump’s position. She’s also leading the pack in the fundraising department, but not by that much over Coleman and Hoskins. Finally, Schwadron is running as a culture warrior, promising to abolish mail-in ballots and fight ESG and DEI initiatives. He’s only raised around $100,000 in fundraising though.

Picking a winner here is tough. The only poll we have shows Schoeller and Hoskins tied for first with 11%, Coleman in third with 9%, Carter in fourth with 8%, Gomez in fifth with 7%, Plocher & Corley tied for sixth with 5%, and Schwadron in last with 2%. With over 40% of the electorate still undecided, this one is probably going to come down to who’s best able to get their name out in the final stretch. In the end, I think Hoskins pulls it out. He’s got a good amount of money left and has the “election integrity” bonafides to help him out with right-wing voters. I would not count out Schoeller and Coleman though. As long as Valentina Gomez doesn’t win, that’s all that matters in my opinion.

State Treasurer:

Republican incumbent Vivek Malek is running for a full term as State Treasurer after being appointed to the post back in late 2022. He’s facing five opponents in this primary: State Senator Andrew Koenig, attorney Lori Rook, State Representative Cody Smith, management consultant Karan Pujji, and conservative activist Tina Goodrick.

Malek is running as a standard right-wing Republican, promising to promote taxpayer investments and stand up to the “woke agenda.” He’s backed by Governor Mike Parson and has raised nearly $2.5 million in fundraising since he launched his campaign. Koenig is running a bit to his left, promoting himself as a “taxpayer watchdog,” who’s gotten things done in Jefferson City. Sprinkle in support for the 2nd Amendment and promising to fight the “Woke indoctrination of Missouri children” and you have a bog-standard Missouri Republican! He’s only raised around $200,000 since jumping in the race.

Rook is running as an outsider, promising to restore transparency to the people of Missouri and fighting “radical woke agendas.” She’s raised a decent amount of money, over $550,000 to be exact. Smith is promising to fight for “conservative fiscal responsibility” by reducing wasteful spending and fighting corruption and “woke ideology.” He’s backed by the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police and has raised over $800,000 in campaign fundraising. There’s not that much about Pujji online and he hasn’t reported raising any money. Finally, Goodrick is running hard to the right of everyone else, promising to “defund wokeness” and “destroy Marxism.” What a State Treasurer can do about that, I do not know.

Malek should be the favorite here. The one poll we have here shows Malek in first with 31% and Koenig, Rook, and Smith all nearly 20 points behind. As such, he’s the favorite.

Attorney General:

Republican incumbent Andrew Bailey was appointed to this role in late 2022, replacing now-US Senator Eric Schmitt. Since he took office, he’s tried to make a name for himself as a fighter of the Biden Administration and liberal groups in general. He’s sued Planned Parenthood (accusing them of trafficking minors across state lines), opened an investigation into Media Matters for America (for them complaining about ads being shown on Twitter next to racist tweets), filed a lawsuit against the state of New York (trying to postpone former President Trump’s trial until after the election), and filed lawsuits to stop student debt relief efforts from the Biden Administration.

Has this stopped him from getting a primary challenge? No, because former Assistant US Attorney Will Scharf is facing him. Scharf, who was also an attorney for former President Trump, is running as an outsider. He’s promising to fight and dismantle the “radical woke left” and fight for former President Trump. Yes, he has his support for Trump ahead of anything else on his website.

Bailey is being backed by former President Trump (again, it’s not as big as it sounds, trust me again on this), US Senators Josh Hawley & Eric Schmitt, and Governor Parson. Scharf is being backed by former President Trump (HE DID IT AGAIN!), Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Club For Growth and far-right media personalities like Charlie Kirk and Mark Levin. Yes, Donald Trump endorsed multiple candidates for one office twice in one year in Missouri. He should definitely stop doing Missouri endorsem*nts at this rate. Anyway, Scharf has actually beaten Bailey in the fundraising department, in both raising and spending money.

This one’s pretty close to a toss-up. In the few non-internal polls we have of this race, Bailey has led by anywhere from 4-5 points. Bailey also has more support from Missouri-based politicians, compared to Scharf’s more out-of-state connections. I can’t discount Scharf’s fundraising advantage, but I think Bailey will ultimately pull this out. I could definitely see Scharf’s Trump connections pulling him over the finishing line, but for now, I’d say Bailey wins.

MO-02 (Western St. Louis suburbs/exurbs):

Republican incumbent Ann Wagner is running for reelection in this Republican-leaning district, but first she has to get through college professor Peter Pfeifer in the primary. Pfeifer is calling himself a “America First Constitutional Conservative” and says that Wagner is part of the Washington D.C. status quo. He hasn’t raised much money (only $4,000) and has no endorsem*nts, so Wagner should be fine here. Maybe watch out for potential protest votes in the more rural parts of the district.

MO-03 (Eastern Missouri):

With Republican incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer retiring from this deeply Republican district, six people are running to replace him: former State Senator Bob Onder, former State Senator Kurt Schaefer, property manager Arnie Dienoff, engineer Kyle Bone, salesman Chad Bicknell, and consultant Bruce Bowman. State Representative Justin Hicks is also on the ballot, but he withdrew in the middle of July. Only Onder and Schaefer are running any sort of serious campaign, so we’ll only focus on those two.

Onder is running as a culture warrior, promising to fight illegal immigration, promote secure elections, and fight the “woke agenda.” Schaeffer is running slightly to his left, but still running a very conservative campaign, promising to fight illegal immigration, cut wasteful spending, and support former President Trump. Onder leads Schaefer in the fundraising department and has the backing of former President Trump, the Club for Growth, and the House Freedom Caucus. Schaefer is backed by retiring Congressman Luetkemeyer and several conservative-leaning groups like the Missouri Farm Bureau & the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police.

Onder should be the favorite here thanks to the Trump endorsem*nt. He’s also leading in the few polls we have of the race, so I’m pretty confident in calling Onder the favorite here.

MO-06 (Northern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Sam Graves is running for re-election in this deeply Republican district, but he first has to face three challengers in the primary: tax preparer Brandon Kleinmeyer, prison guard Weldon Woodward, and conservative activist Freddie Griffin. Outside of Kleinmeyer calling himself “Let’s Go Brandon” Kleinmeyer, nothing serious seems to have emerged from any of the three challengers to Graves and none of them have raised any money. Graves should win easily.

MO-07 (Southwestern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Eric Burlison is running for a second term in this deeply Republican district, but he’s facing three opponents in the primary first: businessman John Adair, writer Camille Lombardi-Olive, and perennial candidate Audrey Richards. None of Burlison’s three opponents have raised much money and not one has attracted much attention. Burlison is the heavy favorite.

MO-08 (Southeastern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Jason Smith is facing two opponents in this deeply Republican district: flooring installer James Snider and businessman Grant Heithold. Neither Snider nor Heithold have raised much money and have no endorsem*nts. Smith should win this one easily.

SD-03 (Crawford County to southern Jefferson County):

With Republican incumbent Elaine Gannon not running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, two Republicans are running to replace her: State Representatives Mike Henderson and Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway.

Henderson is running hard to the right, with his first TV ad promoting him fighting the “woke agenda,” “protecting our children,” and “protecting women’s sports.” Buchheit-Conway seems to be a more traditional conservative, focusing on strengthening the economy, investing in infrastructure, and opposing abortion. All that focus on economic issues and development earned Buchheit-Conway endorsem*nts from several unions like the Teamsters and LiUNA. On the other hand, Henderson is backed by the Missouri Chamber of Commerce & the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police and has a wide fundraising lead over Buchheit-Conway.

Henderson should be the favorite here, his platform seems more in tune with the district (which backed Trump by 50 in 2020) than Buchheit-Conway’s platform (though the union support might help in a heavily WWC district that heavily backed overturning the state’s right to work law in 2018) and Henderson’s wide fundraising lead should give him a comfortable advantage over Buchheit-Conway.

SD-11 (Northern Jackson County):

Redistricting turned this Trump+1 seat into one that would have backed Trump by 11 points in 2020. It was already a juicy flip opportunity for the Missouri Republicans, but the added fact that Democratic incumbent John Rizzo was term-limited made it a much bigger flip opportunity. Three Republicans are duking it out for the nomination: State Representative Aaron McMullen, pastor Joe Nicola, and truck driver David Martin.

McMullen, who sports the best facial hair in the Missouri State Legislature, is running as a right-wing culture warrior, promising to protect the 1st Amendment from Facebook, protect the 2nd Amendment, and reduce taxes. Nicola is also running as a culture warrior, promising to “eliminate all election machines, ending human trafficking (which is totally something one State Senator from Missouri can do), and eliminating CRT and DEI in schools. Martin is running as a right-winger as well, promising to remove “radical gender ideology” in schools and lowering taxes. McMullen has a decent fundraising lead over Nicola, while Martin is struggling far behind both men. Martin has also gotten in legal trouble recently, facing an accusation that he punched the Vice Chairwoman of the Jackson County Republican Party during a Father’s Day BBQ.

I think McMullen wins this one. His fundraising lead and name recognition is pretty important and Nicola’s been in a bit of hot water for his church giving money to his political PAC.

SD-15 (Western St. Louis County):

With Republican incumbent Andrew Koenig term-limited (and running for State Treasurer), three Republicans are running to replace him in this competitive (and left-trending) suburban district: former State Representative David Gregory, Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin, and St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder.

Gregory is running as a far-right conservative, wanting to deport all illegal immigrants, touting his bill to ban Critical Race Theory in schools, and promising to protect school children from “transgender experiments or ideology.” Bowlin is running as a more normal Republican, promising to be tough on crime & immigration and expand workforce development. Finally, Harder’s running on a similar platform as Bowlin, vowing to crack down on illegal immigration and supporting lowering taxes.

Gregory has the fundraising lead and is backed by the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police & State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick. Bowlin has raised a good chunk of change (more than a few serious statewide candidates), but doesn’t have any major endorsem*nts. Finally, Harder has several impressive endorsem*nts from local officials, but is trailing both Gregory and Bowlin in the fundraising department. I think Gregory wins this one. The fundraising lead + Bowlin and Harder potentially splitting the more moderate vote should be enough for him to win. I’m not counting out either Bowlin (because Wildwood has a sizable population) or Harder (because his County Council district is pretty much just this district), but for now I’d call Gregory the favorite.

SD-21 (Central Missouri):

With Republican incumbent Denny Hoskins running for Secretary of State, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: State Representatives Kurtis Gregory and Doug Richey.

Both Gregory and Richey are right-wingers, with both touting their opposition to “woke” policies and their support of pro-life policies. If I had to make a distinction, I’d say Richey’s probably the more culture warrior of the two, with his website prominently talking about his fight to “save” women’s sports and his fight against CRT. Richey is also attacking Gregory for not being conservative enough, claiming that he’ll be the only candidate in the race to stand up to the establishment and “Make Missouri Great Again.”

Gregory has a fundraising lead over Richey, nearly doubling him in the amount of money raised and spent. He also has the backing of MO-04 Congressman Mark Alford. Richey is being backed by Utah US Senator Mike Lee and multiple police unions. I think Gregory is the favorite here, but I’m not counting out Richey at all, especially because his attacks on Gregory not being conservative enough might have more staying power in such a Republican district like this one (which backed Trump by 35 points in 2020).

SD-23 (Eastern St. Charles County):

Republican incumbent Bill Eigel is term-limited (and running for Governor), so four Republicans are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning (and Democratic-trending) district: State Representatives Phil Christofanelli and Adam Schnelting, former St. Charles County Director of Elections Rich Chrismer, and conservative activist Dan O’Connell.

Christofanelli is running as a solid conservative, promising to promote school choice and lowering taxes. Schnelting is running as a culture warrior, promising to fight “wokism” and “The War on Our Children.” Chrismer is running as a pretty standard Republican and O’Connell is running a pretty interesting campaign. He’s pro-union, pro-gun (but calling out the NRA for supporting federal agents seizing guns), and pro-life (but not like anti-abortion, moreso pro-adoption and foster care).

Christofanelli has the fundraising advantage over the other three and endorsem*nts from most of the State Representatives in the area not named Adam Schnelting. Speaking of Schnelting, he’s lagged behind Christofanelli in fundraising, but is backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC and the NRA. Finally, Chrismer and O’Connell are trailing far behind the pair of State Representatives in fundraising and don’t really have any major endorsem*nts. I think Christofanelli pulls this one off thanks to the fundraising lead and the local support. I think Schnelting could make a run at it, but for now, it’s advantage to Christofanelli.

SD-27 (Southeastern Missouri):

With Republican incumbent Holly Rehder running for Lieutenant Governor, three Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: State Representatives Jamie Burger & Chris Dinkins and US Marine Corps Veteran Jacob Turner.

Burger is running as a culture warrior, promising to defend the border, defund sanctuary cities, “protect women’s sports,” and fight “woke” school administrators. Dinkins is running as a pretty standard right-winger, vowing to cut taxes, support the police, and fight against CRT & DEI initiatives. Finally, Turner’s running a far-right conservative, coming out against abortion pills, saying that ALL gun laws are unconstitutional, and vowing to end human trafficking (which again, good luck with that with only being a State Senator).

Burger and Dinkins have been going at it, with Burger airing numerous ads attacking Dinkins for missing votes and engaging in lawsuits that cost taxpayers money. He’s been able to fund these ads thanks to raising nearly three times as much money as Dinkins. He’s also been endorsed by the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police and the Missouri State Teachers Association. Dinkins is backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC and apparently leads in the only poll taken of the race. The poll (according to Dinkins’s Facebook page) showed Dinkins at 27%, Burger at 24%, and Turner at 8%. A massive 41% were undecided.

I think Burger ultimately pulls this out in the end, his campaign finance advantage and TV ads advantage should be enough to overcome a 3 point deficit in the polls. Given the poll though, I’m not counting out Dinkins. I just think Burger has more paths to victory than she does at this point.

SD-29 (Southwestern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Mike Moon is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to face businesswoman Susan Haralson in the primary.

Let’s get this out of the way first, Moon is one of, if not the most right-wing State Senator in Missouri. He once posted a video of him butchering chickens on his farm to prove his pro-life bonafides and has voted against banning child marriage (and raising the marriage age) multiple times. So of course the Missouri GOP made this guy the face of their push to ban gender-affirming care for minors. Haralson is running as a “Constitutional Conservative,” promising to reduce regulations, support a “Parents Bill of Rights” for schools, and fight “far-left ideological fanatics” who support “child gender mutilation and infanticide.” So, she’s pretty much Mike Moon without all the baggage.

The original Moon should be the favorite to win here, He’s raised nearly ten times the amount of money Haralson has raised and Haralson hasn’t really attracted any endorsem*nts. As such, the child marriage-supporting, chicken butcher will probably be sent back to Jefferson City.

SD-31 (Western Missouri):

Republican incumbent Rick Brattin is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to face two opponents in the Republican primary: State Representatives Dan Houx and Mike Haffner.

Brattin has been one of the biggest far-right culture warriors in the State Senate, from voting against adding exceptions for rape victims to an abortion ban (because he instead wants the rapists to be killed) to filibustering for over 24 hours to stop Medicaid funding (which even Governor Parson called him out on), he’s been a real thorn in the side of Senate leadership.

That’s where Houx and Haffner come in. Both are running on similar platforms as Brattin, but are both promising to bring “order” to the Senate, an obvious reference to the 24+ hour filibuster that Brattin did. Houx seems to be the more promising of the two challengers, having beaten Brattin in the fundraising department and having endorsem*nts from the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and the Missouri Council of Firefighters. Haffner has lagged behind both men in fundraising, but is being backed by the Missouri Farm Bureau and several local officials. This is not to discount Brattin either, because he’s backed by the NRA and the Missouri Right to Life PAC.

This one is going to be interesting. On one hand, Brattin losing in the fundraising race to Houx is very concerning to him, especially when combined with the fact that Houx has several key endorsem*nts from conservative groups. On the other hand, Houx & Haffner could be splitting the anti-Brattin vote, which could allow the firebrand Senator to sneak through in this Trump+36 district. I think the latter will happen and Brattin will narrowly win re-election. If an anti-Brattin candidate wins, it’s probably going to be Houx.

SD-33 (Southern Missouri):

This deeply-Republican district’s technically vacant right now thanks to Republican incumbent Karla Eslinger resigning in order to take a job in the Missouri Department of Education. Two Republicans are running to replace her: State Representatives Brad Hudson and Travis Smith.

Hudson is running hard to the right, supporting the 2nd Amendment, restricting abortion, and standing against “government intrusion.” Smith is probably a bit to the left of him, supporting expanding rural broadband, promoting economic development, and supporting the 2nd Amendment. Hudson also has a modest fundraising lead over Smith, but Smith has the backing of the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police.

I’m going to go with Smith winning this one honestly. The fundraising gap between the two probably isn’t big enough (only $40,000) for Hudson to claim the win and Smith’s endorsem*nts from conservative groups should push him over the finish line. Though keep in mind that this is a Trump+63 district, so Hudson’s far-right platform might be enough to give him the win over the more moderate Smith. For right now though, I’m going with Smith.

HD-01 (Northwestern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Jeff Farnan is trying to win a second term in this deeply Republican district, but he first has to face insurance agent Michelle Horner in the primary. Horner is running as a right-wing outsider, promising to give the power back to “the people,” and attacking Farnan for not being conservative enough, specifically for him voting against an education omnibus bill and for a bill that restricts people convicted of domestic violence from owning guns. Farnan has defended his record though, calling them “common sense votes.” He also has a wide fundraising lead over Horner. Farnan should win here, but he might be vulnerable next time around against a better-funded opposition.

HD-33 (Southeastern Jackson County):

Republican incumbent Chris Sander is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but he first has to get through businesswoman Carolyn Caton in the primary. Caton has attacked Sander for not being conservative enough, claiming Sander voted against bills that would ban gender-affirming care for minors and ban “biological men” from women’s sports. Sander is trying to run away from those votes, calling himself an “America First Conservative” who is “anti-boys in girls sports” and “anti-transgender therapies for minors.” Sander also has a huge fundraising lead over Caton and the backing of most conservative groups. Sander should be fine here, even if the about face on trans issues costs him a few votes.

HD-44 (Eastern/southern Boone County):

With Republican incumbent Cheri Toalson Reich term-limited, two Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: businessman John Martin and assistant Missouri Attorney General Bryce Beal.

Martin is running as a bog-standard Republican, focusing on public safety, growing the economy, and school choice. Beal, on the other hand, is very much a hard right-winger. He talks about his time as an attorney fighting the “woke liberal agenda,” and promises to fight “big tech censorship.” Hell, Beal prominently features a news update on his website where he says he stands with Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker (THAT’S HOW TERMINALLY ONLINE THIS MAN IS). Anyway, Martin has the fundraising lead and the backing of the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, while Beal is being backed by Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey and several local officials.

So who’s going to win here? The normal Republican or the far-right culture warrior? Well, it’s pretty much a toss-up. This is the type of district that seems open to backing a more mainstream Republican like Martin, but Beal’s local connections and the backing of Bailey gives me pause. I have to make a guess though, so I guess I’ll go with Beal. I cannot stress the fact that this is pretty much a 50/50 race though.

HD-51 (Saline/Lafayette Counties):

With Republican incumbent Kurtis Gregory running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Lafayette County Sheriff Kerrick Alumbaugh and land surveyor Mark Nolte. Alumbaugh is running as a right-wing culture warrior, promising to protect the 1st & 2nd Amendments and stand firmly against the “woke agenda of the left.” Nolte doesn’t have a campaign website or any social media and hasn’t raised that much money, so Alumbaugh should be the favorite here.

HD-54 (Northern Johnson County):

Republican incumbent Dan Houx is term-limited (and running for State Senate), so two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessmen Brandon Phelps and Matthew Sergent.

Phelps is running as a vague right-wing conservative, promising to reduce “government waste,” support farmers, and keep politics out of classrooms. Sergeant is also running as a right-winger, vowing to keep taxes low, protect the 2nd Amendment, and promote pro-life policies. Phelps has a wide fundraising lead and is backed by MO-04 Congressman Mark Alford & most Johnson County elected officials. Sergent is only being backed by a few local conservative grassroots groups. I think Phelps should be able to pull this one out here.

HD-56 (Belton/Raymore):

Republican incumbent Michael Davis is running for reelection to this solidly Republican district, but first he has to face two opponents in tonight’s primary: Cass County Commissioner Ryan Johnson and high school football coach Todd Berck.

Johnson and Davis are running on very similar right-wing platforms (pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, etc.), but Johnson is attacking Davis as a “do-nothing politician,” who’s more focused on his phone than actually doing legislative work. Johnson points to a recent debate around a landfill that would have been put in Cass County as a debacle where Davis wasn’t really active in trying to stop it. Berck, on the other hand, is running on some vague themes of “faith” and “family.” No real discernable policies there, but we always support football coaches running for office here on Grand Old Primary.

Anyway, Johnson has the fundraising lead over Davis, but neither have really shown off any major endorsem*nts. This is pretty much a shot in the dark here, but I think Davis narrowly pulls this one off. I can see Johnson winning it, but Davis doesn’t really have any major controversies outside of Johnson not thinking he’s active enough in the legislature.

HD-61 (Osage/Gasconade/Montgomery Counties):

Republican incumbent Bruce Sassman is facing two opponents in the primary for this deeply Republican district: Osage County Public Administrator Paul Stratman and businessman Brian Tharp. This has been a pretty low-key primary, with Sassman focusing on his conservative record and Stratman & Tharp running as pretty normal Republicans (pro-2nd Amendment, pro-law enforcement, avoiding culture war topics). As such, Sassman probably pulls this one out, mostly thanks to his wide fundraising lead over his two opponents.

HD-64 (Northern St. Charles County):

Republican incumbent Tony Lovasco is facing a challenge from counselor Deanna Self in this deeply Republican district. Self is running as a right-wing culture warrior, promising to promote “Christian values,” and support school choice. That’s not to say Lovasco isn’t also a culture warrior, it’s just that Self is trying to differentiate herself by also calling herself an outsider. It hasn’t really worked, as most conservative groups have backed Lovasco (who also has a fundraising lead), leaving Self to only have the backing of a City Councilwoman from O’Fallon. Lovasco should be fine here.

HD-100 (Ballwin):

The Democrats are eager to flip this district in November. The fact that it backed President Biden by one point in 2020 and that Republican incumbent Philip Oehlerking has to face two opponents in this primary are good signs for them too. Getting back to Oehlerking, his two opponents here are: businessman Jason Jennings and nurse practitioner Brant Harber.

While Oehlerking is running as a more moderate Republican (promoting tax relief for seniors and protecting law enforcement, while also avoiding culture war issues), Jennings and Harber are running hard to his right. Jennings has a long screed on his website about deporting every single illegal immigrant, promoting the “ONE TRUE GOD and the creation of only TWO SEXES,” and promoting paper ballots. Baber wants to eliminate personal property taxes and promote states rights. Despite this, Oehlerking should be fine. Neither Jennings nor Harber have raised that much money and Jennings is only backed by a few conservative grassroots groups. Oehlerking should win here and a Jennings (or Harber) win will probably mean an automatic flip to the Democrats in November.

HD-104 (St. Peters):

With Republican incumbent Phil Christofanelli term-limited (and running for State Senate), two Republicans are running to replace him in this Republican-leaning (and Democratic-trending) district: former St. Peters Alderwoman Terri Violet and journalist Jeremy Lloyd.

Violet is a pretty bog-standard Republican, promising to protect the 1st & 2nd Amendments, lower taxes, and support veterans. Lloyd is running on a slightly more right-wing platform, vowing to protect the unborn, support school choice, and support law enforcement. Violet has a wide fundraising lead and the backing of the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, while Lloyd is only backed by a few grassroots conservative groups. Violet should be the favorite here.

HD-108 (Lake St. Louis area):

Republican incumbent Justin Hicks is retiring from this deeply Republican district and two Republicans have stepped up to replace him: political aide Max Calfo and Dardenne Prairie Alderman Mike Costlow.

Calfo is running as a far-right culture warrior, promising to oppose the “woke agenda,” and stop the “brainwashing in our schools.” Costlow is running as a more traditional Republican (building the economy, promoting school choice, and protecting natural resources), which has led to Calfo labeling him a “RINO.” Calfo has also pointed to an incident in Costlow’s past where (over 17 years ago), Costlow was arrested for multiple counts of theft, which were later dismissed. Calfo actually tried to sue Costlow off the ballot because of that (Missouri allow doesn’t allow convicted felons to hold office), but it failed. Calfo’s also been on the other side of a recent lawsuit from retiring Representative Hick’s mother-in-law claiming Calfo sexually abused her daughter. That was also thrown out and Hick’s mother-in-law was charged with making false sexual abuse claims.

It’s been a messy primary for sure and picking a winner here is just the least of it. If I had to guess, I’d say Calfo pulls this out. Calfo’s been an attack dog this whole campaign and Costlow hasn’t really been able to keep up with it. Though that could backfire in this exurban district. Maybe the voters don’t want a bombastic candidate like Calfo, but for now I think he pulls it off.

HD-109 (Northern Franklin County):

Republican incumbent Kyle Marquart is facing a primary challenge from former State Representative John Simmons in this deeply Republican district.

This is actually a rematch from 2022 when Marquart defeated Simmons by two points, but it’s looking a lot different this year. Marquart, who’s been a pretty generic Republican in office, doesn’t have that much of a campaign presence online and has only raised around $10,000 for the campaign. Simmons, a right-wing culture warrior promising to fight “woke indoctrination,” has raised over $75,000 and has the backing of the Franklin County GOP and the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity group. Simmons will probably win here and get his old job back after November.

HD-110 (Western St. Louis County):

Republican incumbent Justin Sparks is running for reelection in this solidly Republican district, but he first has to get through Wildwood City Councilman Scott Ottenburg in the primary. Ottenburg is running as a bog-standard Republican, promising to support law enforcement, lower taxes, and reduce regulations. Sparks is running a bit to his right, promising to protect the 2nd Amendment, the unborn, and election integrity. Sparks should be fine here, having a wide fundraising lead over Ottenburg and Ottenburg not having any major backers.

HD-111 (Western Jefferson County):

Republican incumbent Gary Bonacker is facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Cecelie Williams in this deeply Republican district.

Williams is running on a pretty interesting platform, combining standard conservative positions (pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment) with a pretty pro-union approach (attacking Right to Work and promising to protect labor and trade unions). This has earned her the backing of unions like the Plumbers/Pipefitters Union and the Firefighters Union. While Bonacker has the fundraising lead, Williams seems to have more grassroots support. I think Bonacker pulls this off, but a Williams win should not be out of the question (especially with such strong union backing in a heavily WWC district like this one).

HD-113 (Northeastern Jefferson County):

Continuing the trend of first-term Republicans facing primary challenges in deeply Republican districts, Republican incumbent Phil Amato is facing businessman Joe Maddock in this primary.

Both Amato and Maddock are running on similar right-wing platforms of promoting “parental rights” in schools, supporting law enforcement, and supporting the 2nd Amendment. The only difference between the two seems to be in who’s backing them. Maddock is backed by a slew of local Jefferson County officials and the Fraternal Order of Police, while Amato is backed by State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman (who represents this district), the Missouri Chamber of Commerce, and several local labor groups. Those endorsem*nts, combined with a wide fundraising lead, makes me think that Amato should be favored to win here.

HD-115 (Southern Jefferson County):

With Republican incumbent Cyndi Buchheit-Conway running for State Senate, two men are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: US Marine Corps Veteran Bill Lucas and construction worker Dominic Lawson. Both candidates have somewhat vague platforms, both focusing on infrastructure mostly. Lucas also has the fundraising lead, but I couldn’t find any endorsem*nts for either man. Pure shot in the dark here, but let’s go with Lucas to win. Not too confident in that given the lack of information, but with what we do have, I’d call Lucas the slight favorite.

HD-116 (Southern St. Francois/northern Madison Counties):

Republican incumbent Dale Wright is facing a challenge from conservative activist Ryan Cooper in this deeply Republican district. Wright should be fine though, considering Cooper has raised no money and seems to be more focused on promoting Bitcoin than actually promoting his policy proposals.

HD-117 (Northern St. Francois County):

With Republican incumbent Mike Henderson term-limited (and running for State Senate), three people are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: US Army veteran Mike Miller, conservative activist Becky Laubinger, and police officer Chad Brown.

All three candidates are running on similar, far-right platforms, with Miller promising to fight DEI & CRT and “taxpayer-funded liberal propaganda,” Laubinger promising to fight “up-to-birth abortions,” and Brown promising to fight “liberal efforts to defund the police.” Miller has a decent fundraising lead over Laubinger and especially Brown (who has raised no money). Miller is probably the favorite here, but I can see Laubinger pulling a win out.

HD-119 (Eastern Franklin County):

Back to the freshmen Republican facing primary challengers, as Republican incumbent Brad Banderman faces businessman Rafael Madrigal in this deeply Republican district. Both Banderman and Madrigal have similar right-wing platforms, though Madrigal is backed by the Franklin County GOP. On the other hand, Banderman has the fundraising advantage over his opponent. I think Banderman pulls this out mostly thanks to incumbency.

HD-120 (Dent/Crawford Counties):

With Republican incumbent Ron Copeland retiring from this deeply Republican district, two Republicans are running to replace him: pharmacist John Hewkin and conservative activist Lancer Blair. Hewkin is running as a standard right-wing culture warrior (against CRT and moaning about pronouns in his campaign press release), while Blair is a bit of an enigma online. Blair also hasn’t raised much money ($500 to be exact), so Hewkin should win this one easily.

HD-123 (Camden County):

Republican incumbent Lisa Thomas is facing a challenge from businessman Jeff Vernetti in this deeply Republican district.

Vernetti is running on attracting businesses and tourism to the district, while Thomas is running on her conservative legislative record. I would say this means Vernetti is the moderate candidate here, but his Facebook page is full of posts going after “Lyin’ Lisa” for taking money from the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity group and that, because of that, Vernetti is the only “America First” and pro-Trump candidate in the race. Thomas has a wide fundraising lead though and Vernetti hasn’t been able to attract that many endorsem*nts. Thomas should be fine here.

HD-128 (Polk County):

With Republican incumbent Mike Stephens term-limited, four Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Bolivar Mayor Chris Warwick, conservative activist Derral Reynolds, doctor John Best, and perennial candidate Bill Yarberry.

Warwick is running as a culture warrior, promising to defend Missouri against “radical liberals” and stand against “political indoctrination” in schools. Reynolds is similarly conservative (though less bombastic), promising to promote God and stand against illegal immigration. Best is probably the most moderate candidate here, focusing on expanding rural broadband internet and cutting “government waste.” Yarberry has no campaign presence, but if his previous campaigns are anything to go by, he’s mostly running on a pro-life platform.

Warwick is backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC and has a fundraising lead over Reynolds. As such, combined with his name recognition from being Mayor of Bolivar (the biggest city in the district), I think Warwick will probably win this one.

HD-138 (Stone/southern Christian Counties):

With Republican incumbent Brad Hudson running for State Senate, two men are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: businessman Tom Franiak and US Army veteran Burton Whaley.

Both Franiak and Whaley are running as right-wingers, with Franiak vowing to stand up to “the radical left’s cancel culture tactics” and upholding the 1st & 2nd Amendments. Whaley is running on a platform of defending the unborn, protecting “God-given liberties,” and fighting inflation. Both men have pretty much matched each other in fundraising, though Whaley has out-spent Franiak. This is pretty much a pure toss-up, but if I had to guess, I’d go with Whaley winning.

HD-140 (Northern Christian County):

Republican incumbent Jamie Gragg is running for reelection in this deeply Republican district, but first he has to face teacher Danny Garrison in the primary. Garrison has raised no money and has no campaign presence online, so Gragg should be fine here.

HD-141 (Wright/Laclede Counties):

With Republican incumbent Hannah Kelly term-limited, three Republicans are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Wright County Commissioner Zach Williams, school administrator Melissa Schmidt, and conservative activist John Perperian.

Both Williams and Schmidt are running on similarly conservative platforms, with Williams promising to fight “encroachment” on religious freedom by “the extreme left,” and Schmidt decrying our current “godless, government-dependent society.” Perperian is running a vague outsider platform, but he hasn’t raised any money. Williams is backed by the Missouri Cattlemen’s Association and Schmidt is backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC. With both of the two pretty much tied in fundraising, it’s pretty much a toss-up to see who wins. I’m going to go with Williams, mostly because of the elected experience.

HD-143 (Texas/Maries Counties):

Republican incumbent Bennie Cook is facing a primary challenge from conservative activist Phil Lohmann in this deeply Republican district. Lohmann has attacked Cook for not supporting school choice, but has raised no money and has no major endorsem*nts, so Cook should be fine here.

HD-144 (Shannon County to Bollinger County):

With Republican incumbent Chris Dinkins running for State Senate, three candidates are running to replace her in this deeply Republican district: Reynolds County Commissioner Joe Loyd, Iron County Soil and Water Board Chairman Tony Harbison, and teacher Paul “Buck” Usher.

Loyd is running as a self-proclaimed “Trump Conservative,” promising to tackle inflation and protect the 2nd Amendment. Harbison is running as a standard rural Republican, touting his support for the 2nd Amendment and opposition to abortion and foreign land ownership. Usher’s running more as a culture warrior, promising to fight the “woke agenda” and uphold the Constitution. Lloyd is backed by the Missouri Teachers Association and has the fundraising lead, while Harbison is backed by the Missouri Cattlemen's Association and is right behind Lloyd in the fundraising department.

It’s pretty much a pure toss-up between Loyd and Harbison to pick a winner. If I had to pick, I’d say Loyd’s small fundraising lead is enough to push him over the edge. I’m not counting out Harbison though.

HD-145 (Ste. Genevieve/Perry Counties):

Republican incumbent Rick Francis is term-limited, so two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: real estate broker Dave Soto and businessman Bryant Wolfin.

Soto is running as a “conservative problem-solver,” promising to reduce taxes & regulations and “stop the far left from trampling our freedoms.” Wolfin is running as a standard right-winger, focusing his entire platform on “life, liberty, and prosperity.” Soto has the wide fundraising lead over Wolfin and the backing of Representative Francis, while Wolfin is backed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC. Soto should win this one relatively easily.

HD-146 (Northern Cape Girardeau County):

Republican incumbent Barry Hovis is facing a primary challenge from Missouri Army National Guard veteran Lucas Green in this deeply Republican district.

Hovis is running as a standard Republican, focusing on economic growth, lowering regulations, and increasing “parental rights” in education. Green is running a bit to his right, promoting his pro-life views and promoting school choice. Green has nearly kept up with Hovis in fundraising, but the incumbent has maintained a lead and has the backing of the NRA and Missouri Right to Life. Hovis should be fine here.

HD-148 (Scott County):

With Republican incumbent Jamie Burger running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to replace him: judge David Dolan and Oran Mayor Gary Senciboy. Dolan is running a pretty moderate Republican campaign, focusing on improving mental health, transportation, and supporting law enforcement. I can’t find much about Senciboy, outside of his TikTok page (which only has one video and it’s a toilet getting fixed). Dolan also has a wide fundraising lead, so he should win this one.

HD-153 (Southeastern Missouri):

Republican incumbent Darrell Atchison is retiring, so two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican seat: realtor Vinnie Clubb and farmer Keith Elliott.

Both men are running as solid right-wingers, with Clubb promising to promote economic development, protect the 2nd Amendment, and reject “extreme ideologies” in school classrooms. Elliott is running on fiscal responsibility, protecting the unborn, and stopping human trafficking. Clubb has a slight lead in fundraising, but is being backed by pretty much every single local legislator. Because of that, I think Clubb pulls out the win.

HD-154 (Howell County):

With Republican incumbent David Evans retiring, we have three Republicans running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Howell County Commissioner Mark Collins, farmer Lisa Durnell, and teacher Larry Lindeman.

Collins is running as a standard conservative, supporting the 2nd Amendment, “family values,” and veterans rights. Durnell is running to his right, promising to protect Constitutional rights, limiting government, and supporting school choice. Finally, Lindeman is running as a pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment conservative. Collins has the fundraising lead, nearly doubling Durnell’s fundraising totals. Lindeman has raised approximately $0. I think Collins wins this one, but I can see Durnell pulling off the win. For now though, advantage Collins thanks to his fundraising.

HD-155 (Ozark/Douglas/eastern Taney Counties):

With Republican incumbent Travis Smith running for State Senate, two Republicans are running to take his deeply Republican seat in the State House: attorney Matthew Overcast and conservative activist Julie AuBuchon.

Overcast is running as a normal Republican, promising to enact “Missouri First” policies, defend the 2nd Amendment, and improve funding for teachers. AuBuchon is running slightly to his right, promising to lower taxes and crack down on illegal immigration. Overcast has dominated her in the fundraising department, which makes me think that he’ll probably defeat her in the primary.

HD-156 (Western Taney County):

Republican incumbent Brian Seitz is facing school board member Carolyn Boss in the Republican primary for this deeply Republican district. Seitz is running as a right-winger, promising to protect the 1st & 2nd Amendments, fight against abortion, and promote tourism (especially in Branson, which is in this district). Boss is running on a slightly more left-wing platform, promising not to enact new taxes and wanting to increase teacher pay. Boss has one major problem though, fundraising. Seitz is crushing her in that department and that (alongside incumbency) will probably lead to Seitz winning this primary.

HD-161 (Joplin):

Republican incumbent Lane Roberts is facing a challenge from businessman Thomas Ross in this solidly Republican district. Ross is attacking Roberts for not being conservative enough on the 2nd Amendment, but hasn’t raised that much money in his effort to unseat him. Roberts should be fine, considering this district isn’t that deeply Republican (Trump+22 and based in a major city) and having a wide fundraising lead over Ross.

HD-163 (Eastern Jasper County):

Republican incumbent Cody Smith is term-limited (and running for State Treasurer), so two Republicans are running to replace him in this deeply Republican district: Missouri Charter Schools Commissioner Cathy Jo Loy and conservative activist Zach Hatcher. Hatcher has not raised any money and has no campaign presence, so Jo Loy (who’s running on a platform of shrinking the size of the government) will win this one.

And that’s it for this edition of Grand Old Primary! We had a lot of races to go over and I hope you leave this one more informed going into tonight’s primary in Missouri. At the very least, we know how much Missouri Republicans are focused on the real issues here, because I used the word “Woke” nearly 20 times in this article. Truly they have the finger on the pulse on what’s important to everyday citizens. Anyway, we still have one more state to cover today and that’s Washington. So, until then, you can follow me on Twitter at @Uncrewed and don’t forget to stay awesome!